Argenx 更新2026年第二季度：继续看好Vyvgart强劲增长，关注2026年下半年管线数据

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

06 August 2026

Argenx

Updating for Q2’26: Continue to see strong Vyvgart

growth with focus on H2’26 pipeline readouts

We update our model to reflect the Myositis R&D Spotlight session (our take

here) and Q2’26 results (here). For 2026-2031, we upgrade our Revenue

forecasts by c.7-9%, reflecting the recent seronegative label expansion supporting

momentum for Vyvgart in MG and continued traction in CIDP. We further revisit

our forecasts for Myositis, and based on the updates provided at the Myositis R&D

session, we now include risk adj. sales c.$2.3bn (POS 75%) for IMNM and $0.9bn

for DM (POS 30%), or $3bn for each on a risk-unadjusted basis. For 2026, we now

expect Argenx to deliver c.51% y-o-y growth to $6.3bn, with our Product Revenue

estimate c.3% ahead of BBG Consensus. On FY’26 Operating Profit, our forecast

of $2,148m (c.34.2% Operating Margin) is c.8% ahead of BBG Consensus. Results

from the Phase 3 ALKIVIA trial for Vyvgart in Myositis are anticipated in Q3’26,

where we estimate that success in both IMNM and DM would warrant a share price

of €1,050/$1,200 on our NPV approach, whereas success in IMNM and failure in

DM would have a broadly neutral impact suggesting €910/$1,050, or c.20% upside

to current levels. Overall, we continue to see Argenx offering an attractive growth

profile in the mid-term at c.25% 2027-30E EPS CAGR and see potential for the a

positive result in the Phase 3 ALKIVIA trial in only IMNM to unlock significant

further upside, with even more upside should DM get across the line too.

We upgrade our Revenue forecasts by c.7-9% and Operating Profit

forecasts by c.11-21% for 2026-31: Our revenue upgrades reflect continued

strength in existing indications, with MG momentum supported by the

seronegative label expansion, as well as an increase in our Myositis forecasts.

For Myositis, we now model a risk-unadjusted $3bn peak for both IMNM and

DM separately (previously $2bn risk unadjusted combined). After applying

risk adjustments of 75% and 30% respectively, this implies risk-adjusted peaks

of $2.3bn and $0.9bn, which currently contribute $126/€110 (12% of NPV)

and $51/€44 (5% of NPV) respectively.…