Smith & Nephew 广泛且显著的放缓使我们转向观望

研报英文原文证据摘录

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Europe Equity Research

06 August 2026

Smith & Nephew

▼Neutral

Previous: Overweight

Material and broad slowdown moves us to the sidelines

SN.L, SN/ LN

Price (05 Aug 26):1,109p

▼Price Target (Dec-27):1,290p

Prior (Dec-27):1,438p

Q2 saw a further top line slowdown when we were expecting a (small) acceleration.

With all the large orthopaedic players now reported, it is clear that the market has

slowed, from H2 25 to H1 26, and Smith & Nephew is losing share in knees and

now hips. We expect recovery in both to take some time. In addition, there were

other pockets of weakness which mean we do not think the 4% revenue guidance

is de-risked, and we remain skeptical on the mid-term 6-7% target i.e. we see

downside risk to FY26 guidance at Q3 and mid-term guidance at Q4 results. The

shares have outperformed the sector this year (-10.5% vs -16.8%). We do not see

that outperformance persisting in H2 and move to a Neutral rating. Our new price

target is 1290GBp (previously 1438GBp) on updated forecasts and multiples.

US knee slowdown spreads to hips. Knees remain problematic and are

unlikely to move back into positive territory this year and possibly until the full

LANDMARK launch ramps (from Q2 27). US Hips also slowed, although

management is more confident this situation can be resolved more quickly.

Ortho market slowdown. With Zimmer closing out the ortho reporting season

on Wednesday, it is apparent there has been a slowdown in both the US and

ex-US market in H1 vs H2 25. The US market slowdown (from c5.2% to c1.6%

in knees and from 6.0% to 4.4% in hips) has received greater attention than the

ex-US slowdown (from 9.1% to 3.9% in knees and from 3.0% to 0.5% in hips).

The drivers of the US slowdown are more obvious (ACA, shift from hospitals

to ASCs) than ex-US.

H2 acceleration is Q4 weighted and difficult to underwrite. S&N Q1

growth was 3.1%, Q2 1.6%. Management is guiding to Q3 being similar to Q1,

which will leave Q4 needing >7% in Q4. Q4 will benefit from an extra selling

day, but this is typically <1.5% boost. We think investors will struggle to

underwrite this sort of acceleration to a growth rate of >7%, particularly given

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