Flywire 2Q Recap: Another Execution-Driven Beat and FY26 Raise, but Peak-Season Edu Visibility Keeps Us Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Flywire

2Q Recap: Another Execution-Driven Beat and FY26

Raise, but Peak-Season Edu Visibility Keeps Us

Neutral

FLYW, FLYW US

Price (04 Aug 26):$17.26

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$20.00

Prior (Dec-26):$16.00

FLYW delivered another execution-driven beat in 2Q despite a tough macro and

regulatory climate, beating our estimates across key metrics with FY26 outlook

raised beyond the beat. Revenue grew +27% y/y FXN, ~5% above our/Street

expectations, with adj. EBITDA margin expansion ~80bps above at +160 bps y/y.

FY26 FXN organic revenue growth was raised to 19.5%-25.5% (from 16.5%22.5%) and EBITDA margin expansion to +200 to +400 bps (from +175 to +375

prior) despite higher-than-anticipated gross margin pressure as payment

processing ramps faster across Healthcare and B2B. We are taking up FY26

numbers accordingly, but maintain FY27 notional estimates given (1) peak-season

uncertainty in the UK and Australia as visa trends and policy remain fluid, and (2)

a possible pull-forward of payment processing tailwinds into 2H, and it is too early

to call for replenishment next year. Net, we are incrementally more constructive on

management execution and the competitiveness of FLYW’s platform, but we

remain Neutral given a more balanced risk-reward until we have cleaner reads on

peak-season demand and the durability of growth into FY27. We establish a

December 2027 price target of $20, which applies a 3.5x multiple on our CY28E

gross profit (our prior Dec-26 PT was $16).

2Q summary. FLYW reported revenue of $164M (vs JPMe/Street $156.5M),

representing 27% y/y FXN growth, which exceeded the top end of guidance

range by 3ppts (vs 7ppt beat last Q). Adj gross profit of $93M came in above

JPMe/Street $88.5/$89.8M on adj gross margin of 56.6% vs JPMe/Street

56.5%/57.4%, down ~450bps y/y, of which mgmt attributes ~300bps from

executing large payment processing ramps from healthcare and B2B and the

balance to vertical mix shifts. Adj EBITDA of $24M exceeded JPMe/Street

$21.7M on strong cost discipline and operating leverage, reflecting adj

EBITDA margin of 14.6% (+160 bps y/y) vs JPMe/Street 13.9%/13.9%

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