True Corporation PCL EPS和DPS预期正面修正将持续——重申增持评级

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

05 August 2026

True Corporation PCL

Positive revisions to EPS and DPS expectations set to

continue – reiterate OW

Overweight

TRUE.BK, TRUE TB

Price (05 Aug 26):Bt13.30

▲Price Target (Jun-27):Bt17.50

Prior (Dec-26):Bt16.80

We believe the Street continues to underestimate the growth in TRUE’s dividends

and earnings. Strong FCFs support continued deleveraging and higher dividends.

While difficult to predict, we believe the potential dissipation of macro headwinds

will support an acceleration of revenue growth in 2027E as the telecom industry

remains focused on price repair and value-based competition. Our 2027E EPS and

DPS forecasts are 16% and 21% ahead of Bloomberg consensus. We reiterate OW

on TRUE with a Jun -27 PT of THB17.5.

FCF generation supports dividends and deleveraging. TRUE is guiding for

FY26 EBITDA to grow by 7-9%, capex to remain relatively stable at THB2527bn and spectrum payments to decline to THB10bn in FY26/27 vs THB31bn

in FY25. This should drive a material increase in 2026E FCFF to THB45bn vs

THB25bn in 2025; FCFE expands to THB33bn in 2026E from THB7bn in

2025. With continued growth in earnings, we forecast further growth in FCFF

to grow to >THB50bn in 2027E. This cash flow can be used to delever the

business and fund increases in dividends. TRUE has already reduced its net

debt/EBITDA to 3.7x in 2Q26 from 4.0x in 2Q25. Its effective interest rates

have declined by 40bps in 1yr to 3.6% in 2Q26. We increase our 2026E/27E

DPS forecasts to THB0.59/THB0.72 which imply total dividends of

THB19bn/THB24bn. As the FCFs significantly exceed our projected dividend

payments, we believe upside risks exist. Our 2026/27E DPS forecasts are

16%/21% higher than Bloomberg consensus.

Earnings growth could remain strong in 2027E. Growth in 2026E earnings

is largely driven by EBITDA margin expansion and financial leverage as

service revenue growth is likely to be moderate at ~1% (JPMe). The telecom

industry has been buffeted by macro headwinds which have impacted overall

consumer spending and tourist arrivals. If these headwinds dissipate in 2027,

…