TravelSky Technology "Flight booking processing demand slowing; downgrade..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

TravelSky Technology "Flight booking processing demand slowing; downgrade..."

27E 1.03 0.83 -20 0.94

We cut our growth forecast for flight booking processing demand for overseas routes to 12/28E 1.17 0.89 -24 1.01

mid-single digits in 2026 (as double-digit growth may be challenging). According to

company data, the electronic travel distribution (ETD) volume of foreign and regional Xin Chen

commercial airlines grew only 1% YoY in 1H26, below our expectation. Asian routes Analyst

xin.chen@ubs.comremained weak, mainly as mainland Chinese tourist arrivals in Japan have dropped

+86-21-3866 8864

(down 50%-plus YoY) amid geopolitical tension, weighing on overall international

demand. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern airspace restrictions and persistently high airfares Beini Du

on European routes have also dampened travel demand. In addition, the recovery of Associate

S1460525090002foreign airlines' flight bookings has been slower than we expected, pressuring

betty-za.du@ubs.com

TravelSky's AIT yield in 2026.

+86-213-866 8753

Valuation: Cut price target from HK$12.40 to HK$9.30; downgrade to Neutral Yuhua Li

Analyst

Given slower traffic growth and ongoing yield pressure across domestic and yuhua.li@ubs.com

international routes (which we estimate contribute roughly 80% and 20% of AIT +852-2971 6491

revenue, respectively), we expect TravelSky's AIT segment to face a more challenging

operating environment. Thus, we cut our 2026-28E earnings 10-24%. We also cut our

DCF-based price target from HK$12.40 to HK$9.30. Our price target implies 10x 12-

month-forward PE, below its 2023-25 average of 16x, reflecting slower EPS growth.

Highlights (Rmbm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 6,902 8,728 8,668 9,066 9,528 10,014 10,527 11,070