OMV: Chemicals in search of investor chemistry

研报英文原文证据摘录

OMV: Chemicals in search of investor chemistry

Executive summary in four key charts

BGI contribution to OMV implies low return on equity book value (Exhibit 1)

Despite using similar macro decks, our 2030 estimates rank considerably below

OMV’s targets (as well as a more sceptical consensus – Exhibit 2).

Our estimates sit considerably below OMV’s 2030 ambitions (and consensus)

Exhibit 1: BGI accounts for ~18% of our 2027 CFFO vs. its equity value Exhibit 2: We see most downside to 2030 FCF guidance

on OMV’s books making up ~55% of our equity valuation of OMV 2030 guidance vs BofA estimates vs VA consensus indexed to 100

Estimated BGI contributions to OMV Group financials

100% 110

90%

80% 100

70% 90

60%

50% 80

40%

70 30%

20% 60

10%

0% 50

2027 CFFO 2027 clean 2027 Enterprise 2027 FCF Equity value FCF Clean CCS Clean CCS CFFO Production Capex

operating declared value EPS operating

result dividend result

BGI contribution OMV core Guide BofA VA

Source: BofA Global Research estimates Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Visible Alpha, company reports

2027 FCF refers to OMV’s definition of FCF (CFFO-CFFI) BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Our estimates see OMV as the most capex-heavy Big Oil in Europe (Exhibit 3)

Given OMV’s above-average exposure to disruptions in the Middle East – via half

of BGI’s capacity; almost 25% of Upstream production; and even in refining via

OMV’s stake in ADNOC Refining – we believe even a higher-for-longer refining

margin scenario makes for a relatively poorer cushion vs. peers (Exhibit 4).

Leaving downside to peers’ cash returns (even at higher refining margins)

Exhibit 3: No residual organic cash flows after distributions and Exhibit 4: Even at a $25/bbl European refining margin only leaves OMV