DSV - Tempering Our Expectations

研报英文原文证据摘录

DSV - Tempering Our Expectations

July 22, 2026

Investment Conclusion

DSV stock declined 14% today following its in-line underlying 2Q report and slightly higher C26 guidance, as

expectations were clearly high headed into the report. DSV stock is now down 11% YTD, materially underperforming

our WR Transports Index (+39%), EXPD (+20), KNIN (+21%) and the S&P 500 (+10%).

DSV reported 2Q EBIT largely in line with our model with better Air & Sea and Contract Logistics results, but much

worse underlying Road EBIT. Looking ahead, DSV raised its C26 EBIT guidance by DKK 250M (1%) at the midpoint

to DKK 23.5B-DKK 25.5B (up from DKK 23B-25.5B previously). The new DKK 24.5B midpoint is slightly below our

prior estimate and Consensus of DKK 24.7B.

Following the report, we're lowering our 3Q EBIT estimate by 5% to DKK 6.4B and are now 4% below Consensus.

In the near term, we expect Sea freight yields to increase q/q in 3Q, which along with incremental synergies should

support further Air & Sea improvement. However, we expect Road earnings to remain under significant pressure in a

seasonally weak 3Q. We're lowering our C26 EBIT estimate by 1% to DKK 24.45B and are now slightly below the

new guidance midpoint and 1% below prior Consensus. We're more materially lowering our C27 EBIT estimate by

9% to DKK 27.0B and are now 11% below prior Consensus with risk of some Forwarding normalization and more

modest net synergy realization. We're similarly lowering our C28 EBIT estimate by 9% to DKK 30B and are now11%

below Consensus.

Despite substantial macro tailwinds in global forwarding since the start of the year (that we believe have potential

to be relatively transitory), DSV's guidance has remained largely unchanged. So, while integration and gross synergy