Volkswagen "Too early, too messy for a restructuring story" (Neutral) Hummel

研报英文原文证据摘录

Volkswagen "Too early, too messy for a restructuring story" (Neutral) Hummel

Global Research

24 July 2026ab

Volkswagen Equities

GermanyToo early, too messy for a restructuring story

Automobile Manufacturers

12-month rating Neutral *

Punchy H2 guide, long-winded restructuring process & intensifying market

headwinds. After the Q2 earnings call, we think VOW3 likely remains unappealing for

12m price target €80.00

investors in coming months because of the combination of (1) a punchy FY26 guide that

implies a very strong Q4, (2) uncertainty about restructuring charges and cash returns

and (3) intensifying headwinds for Brand Group Core in Europe due to accelerating Price (24 Jul 2026) €71.46

Chinese OEM share gains & growing pricing pressure. While management is determined RIC: VOWG_p.DE BBG: VOW3 GR

to shrink the overhead substantially (50k headcount gap vs. benchmark identified in the

deck), we think the process of voluntary leave agreements will take 2-3 years to execute. Trading data and key metrics

The competitive situation in Europe could deteriorate much faster so that savings could 52-wk range €108.60-69.94

get fully absorbed by price & volume pressure. Further asset disposals don't seem to be Market cap. €14.7b/US$16.8b

imminent and are therefore unlikely to move the needle near-term. Shares o/s 206m (PREF)

Free float 100%

Earnings revisions: MSD% cuts to OP; FCF is the only bright spot Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,024

Avg. daily value (m) €83.2

We cut 2026-27E OP by 4-5% for a 4.1% margin this year (bottom end of 4.0- Common s/h equity (12/26E) €161b

5.5% guidance range; 3.8% achieved in H1/26) and 4.4% next year. The cuts are

P/BV (12/26E) 0.2x

mainly driven by Audi, which now has a 100bps lower (but still H2 skewed) OPM

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM