Dassault Aviation: Strong H1 beat, 10X delay. Reiterate Neutral

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Dassault Aviation: Strong H1 beat, 10X delay. Reiterate Neutral

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Dassault Aviation

Strong H1 beat, 10X delay. Reiterate

Neutral

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 345.00 EUR | Price: 304.60 EUR

Reiterate Neutral: Strong H1 beat offset by 10X delay 24 July 2026

We reiterate our Neutral rating on Dassault Aviation. H1 results were substantially ahead Equity

of consensus, driven by stronger Rafale deliveries and support revenues, although

management maintained FY26 guidance. The key negative was the delay of Falcon 10X

Key Changesentry into service to 2029, versus our prior assumption of first deliveries in 2027. We

now forecast initial 10X deliveries in 2029, lifting our 2028 EBIT forecast by 6% but (EUR) Previous Current

reducing our 2029-30 EBIT estimates by 12-14% on learning curve effects. We raise our Price Obj. 350.00 345.00

FY26 revenue / EPS forecasts by 3% / 2%. We lower our PO to €345 (from €350), using 2026E Rev (m) 8,749.5 9,040.8

an unchanged 16.3x EV/EBIT based on 2030 forecasts (prior 2029). 2027E Rev (m) 10,119.0 10,245.7

2026E EPS 15.96 16.30

2027E EPS 19.87 19.67Strong H1 performance but FY guidance unchanged

Dassault delivered a strong H1, with revenues of €4.16bn (+46% YoY) and adjusted

operating profit of €330m, approximately 25% and 36% ahead of consensus Benjamin Heelan >>

Research Analyst

respectively. The beat was driven by Defence, where revenues rose 68% YoY and were Merrill Lynch (DIFC)

c.37% ahead of consensus, reflecting 12 Rafale deliveries versus seven in H1'25, a richer +44 20 7996 5723 benjamin.heelan@bofa.com

export mix and strong support revenues. Falcon revenues increased 11% YoY, supported

David Holmes, CFA >>

by one additional aircraft delivery. Despite the strong first half, management reiterated Research Analyst