India Watch: Monsoon Tracker: Faring better than forecast for July

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India Watch: Monsoon Tracker: Faring better than forecast for July

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India Watch

Monsoon Tracker: Faring better than

forecast for July

July is now +1% above normal, season 17% below normal 24 July 2026

Following some tapering in the momentum, monsoon picked up over the last week that GEM Economics

saw 13% above normal rains. With this the cumulative deficit improved to 17% below Asia | India

normal vs 24% below normal last week. Overall July is now 1% above normal till July 23rd Rahul Bajoria

– faring better than the forecasts by IMD which was 6% below normal rains for the India & ASEAN Economist

month. The progress of monsoon over July- August remains key to watch as these BofAS+91 22India6632 3095

months form about 60-65% of seasons’ rains (see note, India Viewpoint: Taking a Rain rahul.bajoria@bofa.com

Check: July-August hold the key 08 July 2026). Earlier this month, the IMD projected that Smriti Mehra

all-India rainfall in July 2026 would be around 6% below normal, broadly consistent with IndiaBofASEconomistIndia

the patchy rainfall pattern seen during the second week of the month. +91 22 6632 8314

smriti.mehra@bofa.com

The rains in July have been close to normal

Across the country, July has seen an on-off behavior in rainfall activity, with patches of

Glossarysharp rainfall coupled with periods of dry weather. Still, from a regional perspective,

North, Central and eastern India have seen reasonably steady improvement through the CPI: Consumer price index

month, and in the south, there has been a consistent deficit that has persisted. At the IMD: Indian meteorological department

sub-division level, one less division reported deficit rains on WoW basis with no division WPI: Wholesale Price Index

reporting excess rains on a cumulative basis.