Indra Sistemas: Defence momentum drives upgrades. Reiterate Buy.

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Indra Sistemas: Defence momentum drives upgrades. Reiterate Buy.

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Indra Sistemas

Defence momentum drives upgrades.

Reiterate Buy.

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 73.00 EUR | Price: 54.72 EUR

Reiterate Buy. Increasing 2026-2028 EPS forecasts by 3% 24 July 2026

We reiterate our Buy rating on Indra following H1'26 results, which included a 17% EBIT Equity

beat versus consensus. We increase our 2026-28 EBIT and EPS forecasts by 3%,

reflecting ongoing momentum across the business, particularly in Defence. Our forecasts

Key Changes

remain 4% and 7% above management's reiterated guidance of >€7.0bn revenue and

>€700m EBIT, respectively. Our Price Objective remains unchanged at €73. (EUR) Previous Current

2026E Rev (m) 7,331.0 7,442.3

Defence drives another beat in H1 2027E Rev (m) 8,400.8 8,519.8 2028E Rev (m) 9,438.2 9,556.4

Defence revenue more than doubled in H1 as management highlighted strong execution

2026E EPS 2.71 2.81

across TESS, Eurofighter, Air Defence, FCAS and PEM programmes. Defence revenue 2027E EPS 3.35 3.46

growth accelerated to 156% in Q2 from 22% in Q1 and was 46% ahead of Visible Alpha 2028E EPS 4.09 4.20

consensus, although H1 Defence revenues of €973m were marginally below 2026E EBITDA (m) 874.7 899.2

management's previously indicated target of c.€1bn. Defence EBIT margins declined by 2027E EBITDA (m) 1,036.6 1,063.1

110bps YoY in Q2, reflecting the dilutive impact of TESS, although Defence EBIT still 2028E EBITDA (m) 1,221.3 1,248.9

exceeded consensus by 36%. Defence now accounts for more than 70% of Group EBIT

and backlog reached a record €20.5bn, reinforcing management's confidence in its Benjamin Heelan >>

Research Analyst

growth outlook. Notably, Minsait organic growth accelerated to 8% in Q2 from 2% in Merrill Lynch (DIFC)