CLDX Thesis Renewal. Lax Q4 bar makes us feel better. Post-PN data thoughts

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CLDX Thesis Renewal. Lax Q4 bar makes us feel better. Post-PN data thoughts

Biotechnology - Immunology

FLASH

FLASH: CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (CLDX) July 22, 2026

CLDX Thesis Renewal. Lax Q4 bar makes us feel better. Rating:

Post-PN data thoughts Outperform

Price:

Wolfe Thesis Update: "investors are lax on Ph3 CSU, making CLDX an excellent $35.66

stock now into Q4": Stock interest is far higher today than a few months ago, and fast- Price Target:

$44money positioning is positive into Ph3 CSU before year-end (we have yet to speak to % Upside:

a single bearish investor this year). For single-day stock reaction, we have been semi- 23.4%

nervous about potential safety events such as anaphylaxis and Gr3+ neutropenia

Source: FactSet, Wolfe Research

(if efficacy is nearly fully derisked, then the stock should trade on safety, right?). Priced as of 07/21/26

However, a large fraction of investors in our circle (~80%) believe that a few cases

of these events would not prevent CLDX from trading up — the strongest bullish

argument we have heard is that "these events mattered 2 yrs ago because Celldex

was considered a contender for frontline, but now matter far less when destined to

be the last line". Some investors even compared the upcoming result to XENE data in

March, where a high-consistency, low-risk Ph3 can still be rewarded with upside — Andy Chen, PhD CFA achen@wolferesearch.com

XENE could have seen upside even if data were slightly worse (per Rudy; report). 646-582-9370

View Andy’s Research

CLDX has underbenefited from the sector bull run since Jun. L2M +15% including View CLDX Model

+4pp idio, but L2W −8% including −5pp idio (as of Tue close). If the stock opens low View Comp Table

post-PN data, we believe the stock will likely recover (by Q4 at the latest) as (i)