Carrefour: Mixed 2Q, guidance affirmed

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Carrefour: Mixed 2Q, guidance affirmed

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Carrefour

Mixed 2Q, guidance affirmed

Earnings Review

Mixed 2Q but likely spread neutral 24 July 2026

In our view, this was an overall mixed set of 1H26 numbers from Carrefour but spread High Grade Credit

neutral on balance. We struggle to see relative upside for spreads, with e.g., Carrefour’s France

€31s bond already trading at or inside €BBB non-financials (swap OAS). We maintain our Retailing

Marketweight/Neutral view on Carrefour’s bonds and 5-year CDS (64bps). That said, we Conor Forde

appreciate the focused execution of the ‘Carrefour 2030’ strategic plan. We expect Research Analyst

Carrefour to continue to make incremental progress towards these objectives (e.g., MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 1054

reaching 25% market share in France and a c. 3.5% group operating margin) this year. conor.forde@bofa.com

Good LFLs, in-line sales and softer profitability

LFL: Like for likeThe company continued its positive top-line momentum in 2Q with LFL sales of +1.9%

(>30bps ahead of company-compiled consensus) on a tough +4.4% comp (and slowing ROI: Recurring operating income

sequentially from 1Q). France was c. 20bps ahead on LFLs, with a mixed performance

across store format. Spain showed continued strength (+2.2% vs cons +1.9%), while VA: Visible Alpha

Carrefour’s other markets were generally supportive (ex-Poland). 2Q group gross sales

OAS: Option adjusted spreadgrew +2.8% YoY to €22.7bn (cons in-line). Despite this, 1H profitability was c. -3% below

cons at €757mn (c. +4% YoY). Continued price investment and store mix weighed on GM: Gross margin

gross margins in the half (-28bps lower GMs). This implies group ROI (adj. EBIT) margin

expanded by just c. 4bps to c. 1.9%. We think cons expected closer to c. 2.0%.