Portfolio Strategy Chart of the Day

研报英文原文证据摘录

Portfolio Strategy Chart of the Day

July 22, 2026

Fund Flows Are HOT…Will Earnings Spur Them Higher?

Yearly Cumulative U.S. Net ETF Flows Net Foreign Investment in U.S. Equities

(Rolling LTM)1,600B 1,000B

1,400B YTD net ETF flows have nearly 800B 904B

Foreigners have plowed money into1,200B eclipsed the entirety of '25

600B U.S. Equities over the last 12M!

1,000B

400B

800B

200B

600B

B 400B

200B -200B

0B -400B

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

• In our view, last week marked “peak fear” in the Tech/momentum unwind as news surrounding the release of new Chinese AI

models sparked a deep sell-off, with the NASDAQ 100 falling 4.1%. With GOOGL and TSLA earnings results set to be released

today after the close, our sense is that investor focus will likely begin to shift back towards fundamentals. More specifically, we

believe guidance and commentary on capex will be critically important to the duration of the AI trade and that continued strength in

capital spending numbers are likely needed to reignite momentum within markets and further push Semis higher.

• Our sense is a critical piece of the momentum trade YTD is fund flows from both retail and foreign investors. On a cumulative

basis, net ETF flows YTD are currently ~6% below the full year 2025 level and foreign investors are plowing record dollars

into U.S. equities as both cohorts seek exposure to the AI theme. We believe these “hot” flows underscore investor preference

for companies leveraged to the AI trade and informs our view that the momentum unwind is likely near its end. We believe

that solid 2Q 2026 earnings results from bellwether tech names and capital spending increases are likely to push market