CB 2Q Review: Casualty Pricing Softening in Focus; SME Moat Offsets Growth Headwinds

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CB 2Q Review: Casualty Pricing Softening in Focus; SME Moat Offsets Growth Headwinds

Nonlife Insurance

Commercial Lines - Market Weight

CHUBB LIMITED (CB) July 22, 2026

CB 2Q Review: Casualty Pricing Softening in Focus; SME Rating:

Moat Offsets Growth Headwinds Outperform

Price:

$343.23

The Wolfe Byte Price Target:

Divergent growth trends in SME vs large accounts underpins CB's structural $396

Prior: $401advantages that should allow for steady results throughout the softening cycle. % Upside:

CB doesn't share the same cautious optimism on loss cost trends as TRV. 15.4%

View CB Model

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Middle market/small commercial moat is structural (not cyclical), and the growth

divergence from large accounts proves it. NA commercial SME business grew ~9%, Company Information

contrasting with major/large account premium contraction of a similar magnitude. 52-Week Range $266 - $361

$133,125 Cap. (MM)Management attributed the strong outcome in SME growth to CB's agency- Market $137,026 Enterprise Value (MM)

distributed field operations (inherited from ACE) combined with discrete tailored Shares Out. (MM) 387.9

coverages that CB is able to offer via its specialized underwriters, which has created Avg. Value Traded (MM) $837.15

SI% of Float 1.2%

a structural secular advantage (one we think only a few other peers share). In our Dividend Yield 0.1%

view, this is the key differentiator vs. large-account property, where MGAs, London

Price Performancewholesale (i.e. Lloyd's), and newer entrants continue to driven increasing competition

YTD LTM

(CB reported NA property pricing down (6.0%) vs (2.6%) in 1Q26). CB 10% 12%

SPX 9% 20%

WRCI 7% 20%

Competition is accelerating and broadening in casualty, including pricing

deceleration to 7.1% in 2Q26 (vs. 9.6% in 1Q26).