BNP Paribas: On track for 2026 & 2028 upgrades; >15% ROTE in 2030

研报英文原文证据摘录

BNP Paribas: On track for 2026 & 2028 upgrades; >15% ROTE in 2030

Valuation and FY forecast changes

Investment case

BNPP is entering a structurally stronger phase of profitability, with ROTE set to

accelerate from 2026 as operating leverage, capital discipline and integration benefits

fully materialise. The group’s unique pan-European universal banking model combines

scale, diversification and cross-sell opportunities that should drive sustained positive

jaws and capital-efficient growth.

We forecast ROTE rising to c.14% by 2028E and >15% by 2030E, supported by >5%

revenue growth, tight cost control and limited RWA expansion. The turnaround in returns

is already visible, with improving earnings quality and delivery across divisions.

Despite this, valuation remains undemanding at c.0.87x P/TBV and c.6.6x P/E in 2028E.

We see scope for a meaningful re-rating as execution continues, capital returns remain

strong and regulatory tailwinds (including SIU) support the investment case.

Reiterate Buy and higher €130 PO

Our 2028E SOTP gives a 12M discounted (at 11.5% CoE) PO of €130 (€128 previously).

The implied potential upside to our price objective is 25%. We reiterate our Buy rating.

Our SOTP (sum of the parts) values BNPP on a divisional basis, applying P/E multiples to

our divisional earnings forecasts or P/BV multiples to our allocated equity forecast

calculated as 12% of our forecast RWAs. We add the Group capital excess/deficit to the

13% 2028E Basel 4 CET1 ratio that we value at 1x P/BV.

We increased our 2026-29E net profit estimates by c.1% to factor in 0.5% higher

revenues and higher income from Ageas (in associates) only slightly offset by 0.3%

higher costs.

Exhibit 1: BNPP - SOTP valuation (2028E, €mn)

We increase our PO to €130 from €128