Focus Europe: ECB Reaction: A September hike, at least

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Focus Europe: ECB Reaction: A September hike, at least

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Focus Europe 23 July 2026

ECB Reaction: A September hike, at least

Mark Wall

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• As expected, the ECB left policy rates unchanged in July. In terms of +1-585-615-0253

messaging, there has been a round trip since the last meeting. The

Clemente Delucia

implicit hawkishness of June had started to subside in Sintra as oil prices Senior Economist

fell post-MOU. It has returned as the conflict in the Middle East re- +39-02-402-43012

escalates. The bottom line is, the ECB did not challenge what the market

is currently pricing: policy rates rising to 2.75% and possibly higher. Yacine Rouimi

+44-20-754-71014 • Despite the absence of formal guidance, a hike in September feels more

or less a done deal. That some governors were already asking themselves Sanjay Raja

whether or not to hike in July underlines the high likelihood of rates rising Chief UK Economist

to 2.50% in September. The question is whether 2.50% will mark the end +44-20-754-50530

of this tightening cycle or not? We are holding our view that the ECB

stops at 2.50%, but the risks are clearly skewed towards a further hike to Michael Kirker

Economist

2.75%. For that risk to materialise energy prices will need to remain +44-20-754-72237

persistently elevated and/or there would need to be evidence of second-

round effects.