Solid 2Q26; Tangible Book Value Down 2% in July but In-line with Expectations

研报英文原文证据摘录

Solid 2Q26; Tangible Book Value Down 2% in July but In-line with Expectations

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• Tangible book down 2% in July as of late last week. Management commented that Avg Daily Vol (000) 15,438

Tang. Book/Share $8.58 TBV was down 2% (or 1% pre dividend accrual) in July as of late last week which was

TCE/TA 8.30%

near our expectations given recent spread widening. Looking forward, management Price/Tang.Book 127%

noted that favorable macro themes remain with positive supply / demand technicals, Debt/Common Equity 10.2x

increased bond flows, and wider spreads providing investors with compelling value in Div (ann) US$1.44

agency MBS. We view the current risk / reward as attractive given current return levels Div Yield 13.19%

and we also believe there is a ceiling on spreads with the GSEs remaining disciplined Fiscal Year End Dec

buyers of agency MBS.

Price Performance - 1 Year

• Increasing estimates on 2Q26 results and return outlook. We are increasing our USD

2026 and 2027 core EPS estimate to $1.59 and $1.49 from $1.56 and $1.47. The higher 12.5

estimates are driven by the 2Q26 beat as well as management's expectation that returns 12

should be in the 15% to 17% range using current spread levels. While management 11.5

does not guide to a dividend level, we expect a stable dividend given current returns in 11

excess of the dividend level and the positive core earnings trajectory. 10.5

RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF PT & RECOMMENDATION 10

(1) Interest rate volatility; (2) Decline in market liquidity; and (3) Hedging ineffectiveness 9.5

COMPANY DESCRIPTION Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26

AGNC is an internally-managed mREIT that primarily invests in agency RMBS. Source: Bloomberg

EARNINGS PER SHARE (US$) YEAR

Mar Jun Sep Dec FY FY P/E

2025A 0.44 0.38 0.35 0.35 1.51 7.2x