PayPay: OWへ引き上げ：成長見通しは不変―生保投資の不透明感を織り込みつつ割安感に注目

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PayPay: OWへ引き上げ：成長見通しは不変―生保投資の不透明感を織り込みつつ割安感に注目

IdeaM図表10: PayPayのバリュエーション：EV/GP倍率をメイン手法とし、EV/EBITDAやPERでクロスチェック

EV/Gross Profit EV/EBITDA PER

Equity Value

Share F3/28e F3/29e F3/28e F3/29e F3/28e F3/29e

Senerio

Price Gross Proft Gross Proft EBITDA EBITDA

JPY USD 432.0 501.1 193.2 237.6 EPS (JPY yen) 154.5 EPS (JPY yen) 194.2

(JPY bn) (JPY bn) (JPY bn) (JPY bn)

Block, Klarna ~2.5x Block, Klarna ~2.3x PayPal, Block ~5.6x Block, Klarna ~4.7x Capital One ~9.7x Capital One ~7.7x

$9.0 1.0trn 6.2bn

$10.0 1.1trn 6.9bn Capital One 2.8x Capital One 2.5x 6.2x PayPal 5.2x Rakuten Bank 10.7x Nu 8.6x

$11.0 1.2trn 7.6bn PayPal 3.0x 2.7x 6.8x 5.7x PayPal, Nu 11.8x Rakuten Bank 9.4x

Bear $12.0 1.3trn 8.3bn 3.3x PayPal 2.9x 7.4x 6.2x 12.9x 10.3x

$13.0 1.5trn 9.0bn Chime 3.6x 3.1x Capital One 8.0x Adyen, Nu 6.6x 14.0x PayPal 11.1x

$14.0 1.6trn 9.7bn 3.8x 3.4x Klarna 8.5x Capital One 7.1x Block, Chime 15.0x Chime 12.0x

$15.0 1.7trn 10.3bn 4.1x Chime, SoFi 3.6x Nu 9.1x Chime 7.6x 16.1x Block 12.8x

$16.0 1.8trn 11.0bn SoFi 4.3x 3.8x Adyen 9.7x 8.1x Toast, Adyen 17.2x Toast, Adyen 13.7x

$17.0 1.9trn 11.7bn 4.6x 4.0x 10.3x 8.5x 18.3x Klarna 14.5x

$18.0 2.0trn 12.4bn 4.9x Nu 4.3x Chime 10.9x Toast, Global-e 9.0x 19.3x 15.4x

$19.0 2.1trn 13.1bn 5.1x 4.5x 11.4x 9.5x 20.4x 16.2x

$20.0 2.2trn 13.8bn 5.4x 4.7x SoFi 12.0x SoFi 10.0x 21.5x Global-e 17.1x

$21.0 2.4trn 14.5bn Nu 5.6x Adyen 4.9x Toast 12.6x 10.4x SoFi 22.6x SoFi 18.0x

$22.0 2.5trn 15.2bn Adyen 5.9x 5.2x Global-e 13.2x 10.9x Global-e 23.6x Affirm, GMOPG 18.8x

Visa, Mastercard,

Base $23.0 2.6trn 15.9bn 6.2x Toast 5.4x 13.8x GMOPG 11.4x 24.7x 19.7x

Affirm

$24.0 2.7trn 16.6bn 6.4x 5.6x 14.4x 11.8x Klarna, GMOPG 25.8x 20.5x

$25.0 2.8trn 17.2bn Toast 6.7x 5.8x 14.9x 12.3x 26.9x Visa, Mastercard 21.4x