Alphabet Inc.: 4 Learnings and 2 Catalysts

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Alphabet Inc.: 4 Learnings and 2 Catalysts

IdeaMsales, we continue to think the majority of TPU sales (~3.5GW) will hit in ‘27…with

another ~4GW estimated in ‘28. Please let us know if interested in our TPU or

updated GOOGL Cloud backlog files.

4. GOOGL’s $50/Watt Deal with SPCX Further Explained…Apple and Labs

Causing A Further Surge in Demand?: In work here we analyzed GOOGL’s rental

agreement with SPCX for an estimated $50/watt. We now know this was to service

"very large cloud customers" where short-term rental costs may be high, but the

lifetime value of the relationships are "highly ROI positive." Given the upcoming

launch of the Gemini-powered Siri AI this fall and private labs that are customers of

GCP continuing to train new models, it's safe to say there are multiple explanations

for GOOGL’s surging near-term capacity needs. AAPL is covered by Erik Woodring.

On the cost side, we are incorporating the SPCX deal into our model and adding ~

$1bn/~$3bn of opex in 3Q /4Q based on the deal's September start date and rate of

$920mn/month . In ‘27 we model an additional ~$3bn of opex in 1Q, but assume that

GOOGL will take its earliest opportunity to terminate the contract (as either party

may cancel with 90 days notice after December 31). Even GOOGL management’s

comments about this being a 6 month deal speak to how the company is likely to

opt out once they bring on their own, substantially less expensive, compute

capacity.

2 Catalysts

Gemini 4 Suite of Models and Accelerated Go to Market: We believe GOOGL

needs to deliver its Gemini 3.5 Pro and Gemini 4 suite of models (including efficient,

low-cost models) to re-assure investors that it will remain on the frontier. We

remain confident GOOGL will…but admittedly don’t know when the models are

coming.