Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. 2Q26 Takes; Squishy Beat with Healthy Debate on NRG vs. Potential Upside to Guide; Stay OW for GARP Attributes; PT $95 (-$2)

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Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. 2Q26 Takes; Squishy Beat with Healthy Debate on NRG vs. Potential Upside to Guide; Stay OW for GARP Attributes; PT $95 (-$2)

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will it grow or not in FY26? WH was clear it’s optimistic on the 2H, with a slowing Q4 165 169 183

pace of deletions (1H26 domestic deletions +54% y/y). We forecast FY26 domestic FY 718 744 782

NRG -0.4% y/y. (3) How much conservatism is there in 2H26 domestic RevPAR up

Style Exposure

just 2%, given comps ease considerably? WH’s domestic 2Q RevPAR included a ~25

bps lift from the World Cup (JPMe for 2Q US industry RevPAR lift of +50 bps), and

a similar benefit is anticipated in 3Q, but we think between favorable 2-yr stack math

and stable leisure/infrastructure demand, WH’s domestic RevPAR could further

accelerate, which is when its stock tends to outperform.

• Conference call takes. (1) WH is seeing strong leisure and business travel

trends in July w/ US RevPAR tracking ~+2%; (2) 2H EBITDA growth is

weighted more towards the 4Q, w/ 3Q facing a tougher comparison (i.e.,

lapping 1x cost reductions); (3) WH expects to retain a “subset” of its 19.8k The authors wish to thank Kartik Sood of

remaining Revo rooms and “will revisit the deferral of revenue for these hotels the J.P. Morgan Global Research Center

and any financial upside to FY results at that time.” (4) WH sees its middle- for contributions to this report.

income consumers in “good shape” and is optimistic about 2H. (5) 2H US

RevPAR guide of +2% assumes ⅔ from ADR and ⅓ from Occ gains.

• FY26 guide raised modestly. WH now sees FY26 adj. EBITDA MP of $740m

(+$2.5m vs. prior $737.5m) and FY26 RevPAR MP +0.5% y/y (vs. prior flat

y/y); NRG reiterated at 4.0-4.5% (excl. Revo room terminations). Based on

846,800 rooms at YE25 (excl.