Mexican Banks "2Q26 Preview: EPS up QoQ; Gentera the main exception" Batista

研报英文原文证据摘录

Mexican Banks "2Q26 Preview: EPS up QoQ; Gentera the main exception" Batista

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

Mexican Banks Equities

Latin America2Q26 Preview: EPS up QoQ; Gentera the main

exception Banks

Thiago Batista, CFA

Analyst

thiago.batista@ubs.com

Slightly negative trend in asset quality +55-11-3513 6518

The system entered May-26 with a modest deterioration in asset quality, driven Beatriz Shinye

mainly by the commercial portfolio, where NPLs rose 14bps QTD to ~1.6%, leading Associate Analyst

total system NPLs to increase 11bps despite contained pressure in retail. On loan beatriz.shinye@ubs.com

growth, activity remained healthy, with total loans expanding 6.6% YoY in May, +55-11-2767 6569

supported by double-digit growth in consumer segment (+11.7% YoY). Further, Kaio Prato

based on April and May data, and assuming June follows same pace, system profits Analyst

could decline by 16% QoQ in 2Q26E, largely reflecting a decline in trading gains - kaio.prato@ubs.com

note that despite the possible earnings contraction in the system, we expect some +55-11-3513 6573

expansion for most of the banks we cover (Gentera is the main exception).

Banorte, Banbajio, Inbursa and Regional should report some earnings expansion

We expect Banorte’s earnings to increase 1.6% QoQ (ROAE at 24.7%), mainly driven

by a reduction in the cost of risk, which was abnormally high in 1Q26. BanBajio

should report +5.1% QoQ on earnings and an ROAE of 16.8%, supported by continued

loan growth and an improvement in margins. As for Regional, we forecast 2Q26

ROAE of 18.1% and earnings of Ps1.6bn (+7.7% QoQ) mainly driven by a slight

recovery in NIM, combined with sustained loan growth. Lastly, we expect Inbursa to

post 6.1% QoQ earnings growth, supported by a combination of margin recovery and