Universal Music Group (AO) | Buy | Q2 earnings preview (30 July after-market)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Universal Music Group (AO) | Buy | Q2 earnings preview (30 July after-market)

#EarningsPreview

Release date: 22 July 2026

Conor O'Shea, CFA

Head of Media

+33 1 53 65 36 09

coshea@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyUniversal Music Group

Netherlands | Media Beta Profile: MCap: EUR34.3bn

Target Price: EUR23.00 Bloomberg: UMG NA Reuters: UMG.AS

Current Price: EUR18.50 Free float 41%

Up/downside: 24.3% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 95.3

YTD abs performance -16.8% Market data: 21 July 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 28.11/15.46

Q2 earnings preview (30 July after-market)

Key points:

UMG reports Q2 earnings next Wednesday after-close.

The main KPI is constant currency growth for subscription streaming revenue, particularly excluding the contribution from the

acquisition of Downtown LLC, where the market will be looking for an acceleration compared with Q1 (7.9%) as wholesale price

deals feed in (only one of three concluded so far with the music streaming platforms in Q1) over the course of 2026.

Though the failure of the recent proposal by Pershing is a setback, the latter's exit from the share capital has removed a short-

term overhang, and the very public nature of the proposals and criticisms of certain aspects of management (financial leverage,

communication) has put more pressure on management to be more attentive to shareholder value, also in the short term.

Reporting date 30 July (after-market)

Conference call 30 July at 18:15 CETI CET

Dial-in number Webcast

Table 1:UMG: Q2 forecasts

EURm Q2 26E Q2 25 % YOY CC Consensus Consens CC Consens Cc ex Downtown

Recorded Music

Streaming 1,767 1,555 13.6% 13.8% 1,735 16.9% 7.7%

o/w subscription 1,378 1,197 15.1% 15.3% 1,384 18.4% 9.3%

o/w advertising 389 358 8.6% 8.8% 386 11.4% 2.4%

Other digital 40 69 (42.4%) (42.2%) 45 (29.0%) (38.0%)