Kone (AO) | Buy | Clear beat on order intake, in-line adjusted EBIT margin in Q2, 2026 outlook unchanged

研报英文原文证据摘录

Kone (AO) | Buy | Clear beat on order intake, in-line adjusted EBIT margin in Q2, 2026 outlook unchanged

Kone Buy | Target Price: EUR68.00

Company description Management

Post-merger Kone/TKE would be the global elevator and escalator leader, with Philippe Delorme (CEO)

c.22% value share after likely remedies. The group combines Kone’s Asian scale, Ilkka Hara (CFO)

digital capabilities and innovation base with TKE’s service-heavy franchise, Antti Herlin (Chairman)

installed base and Americas platform. It would offer a more balanced, Key shareholders

aftermarket-led profile, with stronger route density, modernisation reach, R&D Free float 62.67%

scale and targeted EUR700m annual cost synergies. The closing of the deal is Herlin Antti 23.35%

slated for Q2 2027 at the earliest. Polttina Oy 3.26%

Investment case Valuation methodology

The remaining hurdle for the Kone/TKE merger is antitrust, We employ a dual valuation approach, using the weighted

where we expect Germany-led European field remedies rather average fair value derived from a target multiple and our DCF

than deal prohibition. Our base case assumes Kone still retains model.

c. 85% of TKE sales and c. 80% of TKE adjusted EBITDA. We use an EV/EBITDA 2030E target multiple of 17x and discount

The industrial logic is strong and margin-relevant. Kone/TKE is a back the resulting fair value back to 12 months from now.

service-density, geographic-rebalancing and platform-efficiency Moreover, we use a three-stage DCF model with a ten-year time

deal. Even after remedies, the combined group would become horizon (WACC: 8.0%, TG: 2.25%).

the global E&E leader with c. 22% value share. Risks to our rating

The deal targets c. EUR700m cost synergies plus c. EUR200m Antitrust/remedy risk is the key downside case.