HOCHTIEF (1K) | Hold | All eyes on the US peer group derating

研报英文原文证据摘录

HOCHTIEF (1K) | Hold | All eyes on the US peer group derating

universe have de-rated by a more pronounced 24% (-6.3x), which EPS adj. and ful. dil. 14.28 17.51 20.10

Consensus EPS 14.0 17.3 19.9

follows a 50% re-rating over the previous five months. Net dividend 8.20 9.20 11.78

Deconstructing the forecasts FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

We are incorporating the buy-out of the Thiess minorities, closed on 1 July: 40% P/E adj and ful. dil. 32.5 26.5 23.1

stake purchase from Elliott (reaching 100% ownership) for a total consideration of EV/EBITDA 13.9 12.3 11.0

AUD1.18bn. This implies eliminating the corresponding P&L minorities from that EV/EBIT 18.8 16.2 14.2

FCF yield 3.1% 3.8% 4.3% date onwards, as well as adjusting the company's balance sheet minorities and Dividend yield 1.8% 2.0% 2.5%

equity, accordingly. This explains the bulk of the bottom-line upgrade over our ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 0.3 0.0 -0.3

2026-2030 forecast period and takes our FY 2026 operational net profit forecast Gearing 9.8% -32.1% -54.4%

above company guidance. ROIC -1,398.0% -1,143.8% -1,000.2%

EV/IC nm nm nm

Excluding the impact (on minorities) of the Thiess transaction, we are revising our

Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref. operational net profit upwards by an average of 2% over our forecast period. This CRH HOCHTIEF

is explained by a more constructive stance on Turner (strong momentum at the Holcim

beginning of the year continuing over the following quarters), partly offset by

higher financial expenses and taxes.

Valuation and investment conclusion

Our upgraded earnings forecasts and the roll forward of our valuation are much

more than offset by our higher WACC assumption for Turner (8.2% versus 7.7%),

which erodes our DCF-based valuation for Turner by 6% to EUR25.7bn, which

Luis Prieto