Unipol (1K) | Buy | Underwriting the MPS endgame

研报英文原文证据摘录

Unipol (1K) | Buy | Underwriting the MPS endgame

#EarningsPreview #TPchange

Release date: 22 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile BuyUnipol

Italy | Insurance Beta Profile: MCap: EUR18.8bn

Target Price: EUR30.00 (23.50) Change in TP: 27.7 % Bloomberg: UNI IM Reuters: UNPI.MI

Current Price: EUR26.17 Change in Volumes: none 26E/none 27E Free float 48%

Up/downside: 14.6% Change in Op Profit: 9.6% 26E/none 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 60.5

YTD abs performance 27.2% Market data: 21 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 8.7% 26E/none 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 26.64/16.65

Underwriting the MPS endgame Price performance

Why this report?

We do two things. First, we preview Q2/H1 2026 results (7 August), in which

we expect continuity, a still-benign Non-Life environment and a steady Life

result, with the stand-out a large, non-recurring boost to Q2 net financial

results from the revaluation of the group's SpaceX stake (around EUR200m

pre-tax gain) that lifts reported Q2 net income to around EUR490m (+49%

YOY). Second, we now fold the MPS/BPER transaction into our valuation, and

we come out of the analysis seeing Unipol as the clear winner of it. On our

phasing it is around 18% accretive to EPS and DPS by 2028E and creates

around EUR2.3bn of value for Unipol. The group finally puts a long-standing

capital surplus to work, converts a largely passive BPER holding into de facto

control, and ends up with around 40% economic exposure to what would

become Italy's second-largest bank, all at an effective entry multiple of FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

around 5.4x on its share of the synergies, well inside where the asset would Non-life revenues (m) 9,863 10,358 10,822

trade. The value is deliberately shared with BPER minorities to secure the Op. Profit (m) 2,126 2,122 2,243