Humana Inc: Raising PO on improving MCO commentary

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Humana Inc: Raising PO on improving MCO commentary

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Humana Inc

Raising PO on improving MCO commentary

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 410.00 USD | Price: 398.18 USD

Raise PO to $410 off of UNH’s outperformance in MA 20 July 2026

As ELV (7/15) and UNH (7/16) beat expectations in large part on better Medicare Equity

Advantage (MA) results, we continue to feel more comfortable with the trend

environment in MA. Given the MA upside seen across the sector, we raise HUM’s PO to Key Changes

$410 (22.8x 2027E EPS vs $380 & 21.1x previously) and reiterate Neutral.

(US$) Previous Current

Price Obj. 380.00 410.00May Trend Tracker has pointed to softer utilization

We have been seeing trend slow down on a y/y basis through our trend tracker (see

report here). On a same data point basis, trend slowed in May M/M: Inpatient KevinResearchFischbeck,Analyst CFA

decelerated -510bps m/m on a SS basis, followed by Physician (-480bps), and Outpatient BofAS

+1 646 855 5948

(-20bps). Specialty Rx spend accelerated 40bps m/m, followed by Traditional Rx kevin.fischbeck@bofa.com

(260bps). With UNH and ELV both pointing to elevated but stable trend in commercial Joanna Gajuk

and Medicaid, the majority of this slowdown appears to be in MA. MCO guidance Research Analyst

BofAS

assumes stable MA trend growth in 2026 vs 2025, so at +1.7%, we are still well below +1 646 855 3961

the implied +4.8% average guide. joanna.gajuk@bofa.com

Craig Jones

Research Analyst

+1 646 743 2020

craig.jones3@bofa.com

Joaquin Arriagada Martinez

+1 646 855 1654

joaquin.arriagadamartinez@bofa.com

Katie FitzGerald

+1 646 556 2930

katie.fitzgerald@bofa.com

Stock Data

Price 398.18 USD

Price Objective 410.00 USD

Date Established 20-Jul-2026

Investment Opinion C-2-7

52-Week Range 163.11 USD - 428.88 USD