Fresenius Medical Care AG: Q2 Preview: Another pressured quarter; tough 2H ramp ahead

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Fresenius Medical Care AG: Q2 Preview: Another pressured quarter; tough 2H ramp ahead

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Fresenius Medical Care AG

Q2 Preview: Another pressured quarter;

tough 2H ramp ahead

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 32.00 EUR | Price: 42.24 EUR

No US SMTG improvement in Q2; guide looks steep 20 July 2026

We expect Q2 US SMTG of -c40bps, consistent with Q1, driven by ongoing pressure from Equity

the closure of 100 clinics in H1. We think 1H SMTG of -40bps creates a challenging 2H

ramp to achieve full year guidance of flat, and we see risk of a guide cut. We model 2Q

Key ChangesEBIT of €477mn, which includes significant TDAPA tailwinds (€45mn from Catheter Lock,

double digit million from Phosphate Binders), which both roll off in 2H. We look for (EUR) Previous Current

incremental commentary on the ACA headwind, which initially was expected to be 2026E Rev (m) 19,105.2 19,242.5

>€50mn, though mixed commentary from early managed care reports has sparked debate 2027E Rev (m) 19,709.1 19,850.2

on potential upside. For the full year, we continue to think EBIT growth is unlikely, given 2028E Rev (m) 20,304.0 20,449.0

strategic investments (HV HDF/IT Costs) and regulatory headwinds (ACA/TDAPA). We 2026E EPS 3.78 3.87

change our estimates <1%, driven by FX. We leave our PO unchanged at €32, and 2026E DPS 1.64 1.69

reiterate our Underperform as we lack visibility on both US SMTG recovery and

sustainable EBIT growth driven by underlying business growth. Anna Ractliffe >>

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

+44 020 7995 2591Clinic closure pressure drives another weak quarter anna.ractliffe@bofa.com

For Q2, we expect US SMTG will likely be around Q1’s -40bps, despite an easier flu Julien Ouaddour >>

season comp in Q2, and a lack of adverse weather events.