Lamb Weston Holdings Inc: Updating NA frozen potato supply/demand model

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Lamb Weston Holdings Inc: Updating NA frozen potato supply/demand model

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Lamb Weston Holdings Inc

Updating NA frozen potato supply/demand

model

Maintain Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 47.00 USD | Price: 46.46 USD

Updating industry capacity assumptions 20 July 2026

Ahead of LW’s 4Q26 earnings on July 24 (see our preview note here), we refresh our Equity

North American frozen potato supply/demand model to reflect the latest industry

Peter T. Galbo, CFA

capacity announcements and updated demand assumptions. Our industry estimates are Research Analyst

based on reported announcements from industry participants as well as statistics BofAS +1 646 743 0175

published by the North American Potato Market Newsletter (NAPMN) as of July 9, 2026. peter.galbo@bofa.com

Since our last update, Simplot officially opened its Columbia Basin processing facility in Chris Downing

Feb-2026 with ~450mm lbs of capacity, while Agristo recently broke ground on a new Research Analyst BofAS

facility in Grand Forks, North Dakota, expected to add ~550mm lbs of capacity when +1 646 855 4345

fully operational in 2029. Incorporating these developments, our model (Exhibit 1) now christopher.downing@bofa.com

forecasts North American frozen potato capacity utilization of ~96% in 2026/27 and YasmineResearch AnalystDeswandhy

2027/28 before moderating to ~93% in 2028/29. Industry utilization remains below the BofAS

+1 646 855 3745

>100% levels observed prior to 2020, however, the North American market remains yasmine.deswandhy@bofa.com

somewhat challenged given a slower to recover demand environment.

Utilization remains elevated despite additional capacity

Stock DataWhile new capacity continues to enter the market, our forecast assumes relatively

modest demand growth over the next several years.