Financial Services - Australia: Postcard from Asia: Where do the incremental flows go?

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Financial Services - Australia: Postcard from Asia: Where do the incremental flows go?

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Financial Services - Australia

Postcard from Asia: Where do the

incremental flows go?

Industry Overview

Investor focus: Budget, mortgage lending, bad debts, M&A 20 July 2026

Our investor meetings in Singapore and Hong Kong focused on the structural growth Equity

outlook for Australia and the housing market. The overarching question was “where do Australia

the incremental flows go now?” and which sectors could be beneficiaries Financial Services

(superannuation, wealth). Banks have underperformed, but investors are weighing Matt Dunger >>

potential for a relief rally as August results should prove resilient, vs potential for a Research Analyst

structural de-rating post-Federal tax changes. Regionally, investors are re-assessing Merrill+61 2 9226Lynch5329(Australia)

deserved valuation multiples as economic outlooks diverge. matthew.dunger@bofa.com

Banks: Light positioning vs structural de-rating FreyaResearchKongAnalyst>>

Investors are weighing light near-term positioning and EPS resilience, against Merrill Lynch (Australia)

+61 2 9226 5840

uncertainty on credit quality and potential for structural de-rating. Key debates included: freya.kong@bofa.com

ANZ: ability to grow revenues and uncertainty around strategic ambitions in Wealth;

CBA: slowing revenue growth post-Budget and reluctance to take action on costs; NAB:

credit quality and capital generation concerns continue, consensus positioned for Related research

deterioration in arrears; WBC: more NIM pressure than peers and risk of higher

technology costs vs positive on the ability to deliver positive ‘jaws’. Banks - Australia: Reporting season preview: A

tougher outlook for Retail banks