Machinery, E&C and Waste: Ag Equipment Dealer Survey: Tough Times on The Farm Yet Silver Linings Emerge

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Machinery, E&C and Waste: Ag Equipment Dealer Survey: Tough Times on The Farm Yet Silver Linings Emerge

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Machinery, E&C and Waste

Ag Equipment Dealer Survey: Tough Times

on The Farm Yet Silver Linings Emerge

Industry Overview

Farm equip’t survey: ag recession extends, silver linings 20 July 2026

Our brief Ag equipment survey of dealers (~30 dealers) suggests the industry is still in Equity

an ag recession and paints a challenging ordering environment. While this is expected as Americas

OEMs already guided 2026 to be (another) down year, the survey picks up signs that the Machinery, E&C and Waste

pressure is likely to persist: expectations for high horsepower (HP) equipment orders is

still ‘flat to down slightly’ and timeline for a bottom in the equipment cycle continues to

be pushed out further (exhibit 1). Silver linings – new tractor inventories are moving into

a great position (i.e., suggest production cuts are helping/effective) and pricing is firm

QoQ (i.e., not taking a leg down). We reduce 2027-2028 estimates for our farm

equipment-exposed names (DE, AGCO, CNH) in a separate report this morning.

Michael Feniger

Farm equipment bottom to extend a little longer ResearchBofAS Analyst

Our survey’s reading (albeit very early) on likely ordering expectations for ‘27 suggest +1 646 855 1923 michael.feniger@bofa.com

‘flat to slightly down’ with the average in the low-single digit range. We believe this Sherif El-Sabbahy

might be more about the depressed sentiment vs actual EOPs. Dealer expectations on Research Analyst

the timing of the bottom appears to be ‘pushed out’ (exhibit 1): only 17% expect the BofASsherif.el-sabbahy@bofa.com

bottom in 2026 (vs 26% last survey), 55% in 2027 (vs 51%) & 28% in 2028 (vs 23%). Matthew Palay

Research Analyst