PCTY F4Q26 Preview: Numbers Aren't Going Down

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PCTY F4Q26 Preview: Numbers Aren't Going Down

July 20, 2026

Jacob Smith jacob.smith@guggenheimpartners.com PCTY F4Q26 Preview: Numbers Aren't Going Down

212 518 9286

John DiFucci Key Message: We expect Paylocity to beat F4Q26 numbers by 2% and, more

john.difucci@guggenheimpartners.com importantly, guide FY27 in-line with current consensus. In other words, numbers likely

212 518 9670 aren't going down, even with management’s typical approach of setting up a beat

and raise cadence throughout the year, which is what investors cautious on software

want to see. We estimate consensus F4Q Recurring and other revenue of $405M

requires a 60% decline in New ARR, which implies a significant downtick in business

momentum that we think is highly unlikely. A more plausible scenario of 10% New ARRPCTY BUY growth (stable business momentum q/q) yields 11.6% growth and 2% upside to F4Q Paylocity Holding Corporation

consensus. Looking ahead to FY27, we believe guidance likely lands around 8% at Sector: Software

the midpoint, which would be in-line with consensus. Our channel work supports our

Earnings Preview view on the numerical setup (F4Q beat, FY27 in-line), as checks this quarter came back

Share Price $127.29 largely positive and consistent q/q with nothing breaking against expectations

in terms of new hiring or net employee growth across customer bases. Partners Price Target $180.00

continue to describe the insurance broker channel as a gradual, compounding tailwind

anchored by Paylocity remaining one of the last payroll and HCM vendors without

offerings that compete with brokers. The GTM push for Managed services, or what Revenue ($M)

(FY JUN) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Paylocity calls Elevate solutions, really stood out in the quarter and is a key area to watch