APAC Economic Comment "Malaysia: Q2 GDP upside, benign inflation" Lim

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APAC Economic Comment "Malaysia: Q2 GDP upside, benign inflation" Lim

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

APAC Economic Comment Economics

MalaysiaMalaysia: Q2 GDP upside, benign inflation

Grace Lim

Economist

Stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP reflects broad-based resilience grace-k.lim@ubs.com

+65-6495 5965

Based on advance estimates by the Malaysia department of statistics, Q2 GDP growth

surprised on the upside at 5.8% y/y, accelerating from the previous quarter's 5.4%. Claire Long

EconomistGrowth was above the Bloomberg consensus of 5.2% and our 5.0% forecast.

claire.long@ubs.com

Sequentially, the economy expanded by 2.1% q/q sa. While part of the strength was +65 6495 7426

driven by a rebound in mining activity following maintenance-related disruptions in Q1,

the data also point to firmer manufacturing momentum and continued resilience in

domestic demand especially in services and construction. Overall, the outturn supports

our recently upgraded 2026 GDP growth forecast of 4.7% (from 4.5%), underpinned by

a balanced mix of domestic demand, investment and external demand (see our recent

report Malaysia: Resilience in the run-up to GE16).

Manufacturing and mining lead the rebound, domestic demand resilient

The mining sector grew 10.2% y/y after a -2.1% y/y contraction in Q1, backed by

a recovery in natural gas production.

The manufacturing sector grew 7.5% y/y (2.6% q/q sa), accelerating from the

5.9% pace in Q1 and marking the fastest expansion since late 2022. Based on IP

data through May, manufacturing gains appear to have been driven by continued

strength in the E&E cycle, a temporary boost from transport equipment in April,

and firmer petroleum refining activity and higher rubber glove output, supported

by a favourable terms-of-trade backdrop amid elevated oil prices.