First Read: Samsung Biologics "Tender offer to acquire Polypeptide..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: Samsung Biologics "Tender offer to acquire Polypeptide..."

BS Cons.

diabetes treatments (UBSe ~50mn GLP-1 patients globally by 2030E vs 25mn currently).

12/26E 40,204 40,990

Pricing may see some pressure as the first wave of GLP-1 generics come to market,

12/27E 45,809 47,443

though Polypeptide's management had stated that the impact to CDMOs seems 12/28E 50,400 52,785

manageable as peptides account for only ~4% of total drug cost while supply remains

constrained. We think the deal comes at a good time for SBL amid muted mAb orders Brandon Suh

lately, while bringing clear benefits including a broadening of the CDMO portfolio, Analyst

improvement to the growth profile, and a wider geographical footprint. brandon.suh@ubs.com

+82-2-3702 8813

Higher growth and scale, though margins may weigh Yong-Suk Son, CFA

AnalystOn our latest model estimates for Polypeptide, we estimate the acquisition would

yongsuk.son@ubs.com

theoretically lead to a 16-17% addition to SBL's revenues and a 7-8% addition to SBL's +82-2-3702 8804

EBITDA through 2027-30E, with further upside potential if assuming cost synergies

(Figure 1). Whilst the mix of funding is undecided as yet, we expect the deal to be EPS

accretive given SBL's low cost of debt and net cash position (i.e. low likelihood of equity

issuance). That said, with Polypeptide's margin profile being ~30%pts lower than SBL's

given peptides' lower manufacturing complexity vs mAbs, we do expect some level of

margin dilution to the consolidated entity post close, albeit with improvement to the

overall growth profile.

Valuation: PT Won2,150k; maintain Buy

SBL trades at 34x 2026E P/E, well-below -1SD of its historical band though still at a

moderate premium to global CDMO peers' average. We maintain our Buy rating.