4Q26 AUM and flow momentum support FY27 [ERRATUM]

研报英文原文证据摘录

4Q26 AUM and flow momentum support FY27 [ERRATUM]

Macquarie Equity Research Navigator Global Investments

Investment case

After a period of research restrictions, we resume coverage with an Outperform rating,

with the key change during our time on restriction being NGI's acquisition of 17 net revenue

interests in alternative asset managers (NGI Stable Growth Portfolio). We are confident in

the earnings uplift this transaction will deliver for NGI as the NGI Stable Growth Portfolio

adds meaningful scale and increased diversification benefits across AUM in tandem with low

correlation of earnings to existing partner firms. Additionally, the portfolio skews toward early

stage and higher growth managers vs NGI's more established mature managers, delivering a

step change in growth supported by more frequent, less variable cashflow to NGI.

Importantly, beyond the Stable transaction our conviction on NGI is further supported by

its capital light business model, potential for operating leverage, balance sheet and M&A

optionality and recent performance and outlook.

• Capital light model. We view NGI's capital light staking model as attractive, with its position

as a leading partner to alternative asset manager's supported by the structural tailwind of

increasing demand globally for alternatives exposure.

• Operating leverage. NGI collects net-revenue-share and distribution income against a

largely fixed corporate cost base, benefiting from the drop through of incremental fee and

distribution revenue through to Adjusted EBITDA. As AUM compounds, performance fees

delivered in good years and Stable portfolio is fully consolidated, we expect NGI to convert

top-line growth into disproportionate Adjusted EBITDA growth and margin expansion

across the medium term.