Optionality in the bank

研报英文原文证据摘录

Optionality in the bank

Macquarie Equity Research Regis Resources

FY27 guidance released

• FY27 production guidance of 360-400koz was 3%/4% below VA/MQe forecasts at the

midpoint, but was inside VA/MQe expectations at the upper end of guidance. Tropicana

was the main driver of the lower guidance, with lower open pit ore production at Havana

resulting in higher proportion of lower grade stockpile mill feed compared to FY26.

• FY27 AISC guidance of A$2,990-3,390/oz was 8%/10% above VA/MQe forecasts at the

midpoint, but was slightly below the lower end of guidance ranges. Tropicana was the main

driver of the higher costs due to fixed cost dilution (i.e., lower production and stable fixed

costs). RRL also indicated that it is assuming diesel prices of A$1.35/l at Duketon as part of

FY27 guidance, and that for every A$0.10/l diesel price movement there is approximately an

A$25/oz sensitivity.

• FY27 growth capex of A$250-270m was 81%/94% above VA/MQe forecasts at the

midpoint. RRL has included pre-strip of several new open pits and continuing development

of Rosemont Stage 3 underground, which has led to higher growth capex at Duketon. At

Tropicana, growth capex is higher due to ongoing Havana UG pre-production development

activities as it approaches commercial production. RRL is also spending A$80-90m on

exploration in FY27 plus an additional A$30-35m of spending at McPhillamys to target a FID

in 1HCY28.

• We update our forecasts to reflect the mid-point of guidance.

Figure 1 - RRL FY27 guidance mid-point versus VA and prior MQe

Production (koz) Actual VA Var. (%) Actual MQe Var. (%)

Duketon 255 267 -4% 255 242 5%

Tropicana (30%) 125 142 -12% 125 154 -19%

Total 380 392 -3% 380 396 -4%

AISC (A$/oz) Actual VA Var. (%) Actual MQe Var. (%)

Duketon 3,325 3,128 6% 3,325 3,355 -1%