AIR-FR: Model Update for Pre Close Call

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AIR-FR: Model Update for Pre Close Call

Aerospace & Defense Equity Research

Wells Fargo Express Takeaways

Airbus SE (AIR-FR) | Rating: Equal Weight | Price Target: €175.00

Analyst: David Strauss

Financials Investment Thesis

While we ultimately see upside on an increasing proportion ofFY (Dec) 2025A 2026E 2027E

€ higher-priced and higher-margin A321 deliveries, leverage to higher

ESTIMATES A350 volumes (on improving supply chain), and the opportunity

EPS for improved A220 returns, Airbus is more constrained by supply

Q1 1.01 A 0.74 A 1.08 E chain than BA and we expect a larger negative impact from SPR

Q2 0.93 A 1.91 E 1.74 E integration. We rate the shares Equal Weight.

Q3 1.41 A 2.06 E 2.50 E

Q4 3.26 A 3.12 E 3.84 E

AN 6.61 A 7.83 E 9.16 E Risk vs. Reward – Upside/Downside Price Target ScenariosRev. (MM) 73.42B A 81.37B E 89.53B E

EBIT (MM) 6,082.0 A 7,566.3 E 9,397.2 E

EBITDA (MM) 10.26B A 10.91B E 12.76B E

FCF (MM) 4,303.0 A 4,840.2 E 5,711.0 E Upside Scenario €200.00

WELLS FARGO vs. CONSENSUS Base Case €175.00

Consensus Estimate 6.61 A 7.24 E 8.62 E * €195.38

Difference from Consensus 8.2% 6.3%

Downside Scenario €155.00

VALUATION

P/E 29.6x 24.9x 21.3x €124 €153 €182 €211 €240

EV/Revenue 2.0x 1.8x 1.6x

EV/EBIT 23.6x 19.0x 15.3x

EV/EBITDA 14.0x 13.1x 11.2x *As of 07/15/26

EV/FCF 33.3x 29.6x 25.1x Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates and Factset.

FCF Yield 2.8% 3.1% 3.7%

Consensus Estimate: Source: Bloomberg

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

NA = Not Available, NE = No Estimate

Base Case | €175.00 Upside Scenario | €200.00 Downside Scenario | €155.00

• Our price target of €175 reflects Airbus • Supply chain challenges could abate • Supply chain challenges, including