Kusuri No Aoki "Revising forecasts: Raising our OP forecasts" (Neutral) Oike

研报英文原文证据摘录

Kusuri No Aoki "Revising forecasts: Raising our OP forecasts" (Neutral) Oike

Global Research

17 July 2026ab

Kusuri No Aoki Equities

JapanRevising forecasts: Raising our OP forecasts

Retailers, Drug-Based

12-month rating Neutral

Action: Earnings update based on Q4 results and change in coverage analyst

We are updating our earnings forecasts based on Q4 results. We are raising our OP 12m price target ¥4,010

estimates to reflect upwardly revised assumptions for new openings and same-store Prior : ¥3,780

sales. We maintain our outlook for earnings growth driven by multi-store expansion in

Price (16 Jul 2026) ¥3,831

differentiated formats. We are changing our price target from ¥3,780 to ¥4,010. We

reiterate our Neutral rating. RIC: 3549.T BBG: 3549 JP

Trading data and key metrics

Investment overview: Market share rising with differentiated formats

52-wk range ¥4,771-3,424

Major drugstore chains are continuing to open a large number of stores, leading to

Market cap. ¥364b/US$2.24b

intensifying competition. In fact, we estimate that the population per drugstore has

Shares o/s 95.0m (ORD)

decreased from 9,736 people in 2014 to 6,050 people in 2025. Amid this environment,

Free float 57%

the company has been steadily expanding nationwide, leveraging its competitive

advantages in pricing and product lineup, while maintaining a larger average sales floor Avg. daily volume ('000) 259

area per store than competitors. We expect minimum wage increases to be higher in Avg. daily value (m) ¥958.7

core regional areas, and an accelerated shakeout among low-profit drugstore and Common s/h equity (05/27E) ¥152b

supermarket operators is likely to lead to business opportunities. P/BV (05/27E) 2.4x

Net debt to EBITDA (05/27E) 1.6x