LatAm Payments "Payments Preview: What to expect for 2Q26?" Prato

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LatAm Payments "Payments Preview: What to expect for 2Q26?" Prato

Global Research

17 July 2026ab

LatAm Payments Equities

Latin AmericaPayments Preview: What to expect for 2Q26?

Diversified Financial

Kaio Prato

Updating estimates amid Higher rates Analyst

We update our estimates for Brazilian payments incorporating the effects of higher kaio.prato@ubs.com

rates for longer, latest credit data (based on FIDCs) and recent conversations with +55-11-3513 6573

management. We then reduce our estimates by -6% on average in 26-30E for STNE Camila Azevedo

and -5% for PAGS. Our new PT is at US$15 (from US$17) for STNE and US$12.5 (from Associate Analyst

US$14) for PAGS. Our estimates are below companies’ guidance for gross profit camila.azevedo@ubs.com

(mostly on higher rates). We foresee net income at R$2.5bn and R$2.6bn for STNE in +55-11-2767 6881

26/27E (-5/+5%YoY; ~5% below consensus) and at R$2.4bn and R$2.6bn for PAGS in Bruno Kenji

26/27E (+6/+6%YoY; ~2% below consensus). We flag ongoing risks to our estimates Associate Analyst

based on payments/banking performance, amid macro uncertainties. We see STNE bruno.kenji@ubs.com

and PAGS trading at 6x/5x PE 26/27E, with ~11-15% yield. +55-11-2767 6056

Thiago Batista, CFA

2Q preview: gradual TPV acceleration driven by PIX Analyst

For 2Q, we expect a gradual acceleration in TPV, mainly pushed by PIX, which should thiago.batista@ubs.com

+55-11-3513 6518

also put some pressure on take rates (PIX P2M up by +25%YoY in 2Q). In banking,

credit portfolio should continue to grow, supported by new WK originations at PAGS

and government-backed programs at STNE (~R$ 320mn were granted through the

PEAC program as of Jun). Asset quality should deteriorate, with minor

improvements in CoR for STNE. We foresee a solid set of results at dLo.