KMTS: Nothing to Defib Here – Upside Current Steady [FY4Q26 Review]

研报英文原文证据摘录

KMTS: Nothing to Defib Here – Upside Current Steady [FY4Q26 Review]

July 15, 2026

Investment Conclusion

We rate KMTS shares Outperform and have a $30 target price driven by a long-term DCF model. Key assumptions

& defenses thereof in our 15-year DCF build?

1. US WCD market fitting volume grows in the mid-single-digits, representing about 1% incremental market

penetration per year, roughly aligned with the cadence of penetration since Zoll launched almost 20 years ago

(~15% penetration into incidence today).

2. The Medicare reimbursement rate for K0606 increases in the low-single-digits annually, consistent with 3%

average increase since 2008.

3. Kestra earns 40% market share at the terminal state, 15 years from now. That represents about two points

of share capture per year versus the three points per year Kestra has averaged thus far since US launch. For

perspective, Axonics earned about 35% of the US sacral neuromodulation market five years post launch as

second player disrupting long-time single incumbent Medtronic. To further support our modeling, we present

share capture cadence of other ‘disruptor’ situations in our initiation deck.

4. Kestra starts to ramp OUS efforts more assertively in the next decade.

5. Terminal GAAP EBIT margin of 30%. Zoll once described a mid-20s EBIT margin for LifeVest. Multiple

examples of medical device businesses showing 30% with 80%+ gross margins at scale, consistent with what

we view as Kestra’s long-term gross margin potential.

6. Discount rate ~10% with terminal growth rate of ~3%.

The long-term DCF is the input to our valuation. A short-term EV/revenue multiple is an output. For a sense check

versus high growth SMID medical device comps, how does our target price stack up? Represents ~8 times 2027