JBHT - Big Volumes, and Pricing Next

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JBHT - Big Volumes, and Pricing Next

July 15, 2026

Investment Conclusion

Prior to its 2Q report. JBHT's stock is up 42% YTD, outperforming our WR Transport Index (+33%) and outperforming

the S&P 500 (+11%).

Following the 2Q beat vs. our model, we're raising our 3Q:26 EPS estimate by 2% to $2.14 and are now 4%

above prior Consensus. We're similarly raising our C26 EPS estimate by 4% to $7.95 and are now 6% above prior

Consensus. We're also raising our C27 EPS estimate by 2% to $10.75 and are now 11% above prior Consensus.

Lastly, we're raising our C28 EPS estimate by 2% to $14.25 and are now 23% above prior Consensus. Our C27

and C28 estimates embed 10.5% and 12% intermodal margins, respectively vs. JBHT's long-term guidance range of

10%-12%. Moreover, this cycle will likely come with better free cash flow than we've seen from JBHT in prior cycles

since JBHT already funded a bunch of its growth without any need to buy new containers right now despite double-

digit volume growth.

As shown in the exhibit below, JBHT Intermodal showed as much leverage (if not more) to a tightening truck

environment relative to the TL carriers. JBHT also demonstrated more resilient earnings on the way down as well.

This is despite just 3%-4% total intermodal volume growth from 2020-2024. And looking ahead to this cycle, we are

already seeing much stronger intermodal share gains this time around. We also maintain our view that JBHT could be

a potential share gainer with the upcoming UNP-NSC merger. So, we continue to believe intermodal can be the best

way to play this cycle, with opportunities for both volume and price. And as shown below, while intermodal pricing

remains a bit subdued for now, history say it will follow asset-based TL pricing on a small lag, and we started to hear