SPGI/MCO - Read-Throughs from 2Q Bank DCM Results

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SPGI/MCO - Read-Throughs from 2Q Bank DCM Results

Business and Information Services

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SPGI/MCO - Read-Throughs from 2Q Bank DCM Results July 15, 2026

The Wolfe Byte

We update our regression analyses for SPGI and MCO based on 2Q26 DCM revenue across the large banks that

have reported to date. Overall, our analysis reinforces our constructive view on SPGI/MCO into their prints. See

more guide raise potential at SPGI.

●Large bank DCM results this week (JPM, C, BAC, GS, MS - Covered by Wolfe Analyst Steven Chubak) point

to constructive read-throughs for debt issuance-driven revenues at SPGI and MCO. On the surface, results

were largely positive with JPM, C, BAC, MS, and GS all beating consensus by a sizable amount. In total, debt/fixed

income underwriting revenues across these banks were $5.1bn, up ~41.5% Y/Y (vs. ~2.3% in 1Q26) and up ~20%

Q/Q. Overall, we see these results as materially better than those implied by DealLogic data and gives us greater

conviction around upside to Ratings/MIS revenue in 2Q (see here for detail from our earnings preview).

●Regressions Point Upside to 2Q Ratings/MIS Revenue at SPGI/MCO: For SPGI, our Y/Y regression points to

2Q26 Ratings revenue growth of ~27.6%, compared to our estimate calling for ~15% (VA consensus looking for

~11.7%). For MCO, our regression analysis indicates 2Q26 MIS revenue growth of ~29.5% vs. our estimate of

~19.4% (VA consensus looking for ~12.8%). We note that the regressions tend to overstate implied growth

by LSD ppt, but that even when accounting for this dynamic, we still see potential for Ratings/MIS upside

relative to our and Street estimates.

●More Constructive View on MCO/SPGI into Results: We believe the data reinforces our more constructive view