India Watch: Monsoon Tracker: Weakness returns

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India Watch: Monsoon Tracker: Weakness returns

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India Watch

Monsoon Tracker: Weakness returns

July so far is 5% below normal, season 24% below normal 17 July 2026

After a strong start to the second month of the Southwest monsoon season, cumulative GEM Economics

rainfall in the second week of July was around 15% above normal (vs ~40% below Asia | India

normal in June end). However, rainfall activity weakened during the second week of July, Rahul Bajoria

with sparse precipitation observed across much of the country. As a result, cumulative India & ASEAN Economist

all-India rainfall stood 24% below normal as of July 16. While the monsoon covered the BofAS+91 22India6632 3095

entire country by July 9—just one day later than the normal trend—its intensity has rahul.bajoria@bofa.com

moderated since then. The progress of monsoon over July- August remains key to watch Smriti Mehra

as these months form about 60-65% of seasons’ rains (see note, India Viewpoint: Taking IndiaBofASEconomistIndia

a Rain Check: July-August hold the key 08 July 2026). Earlier this month, the IMD +91 22 6632 8314

smriti.mehra@bofa.com

projected that all-India rainfall in July 2026 would be around 6% below normal, broadly

consistent with the patchy rainfall pattern seen during the second week of the month.

The rains stalled across regions vs the last week Glossary

Following a strong start in July, the rains stalled across regions over the last week. North, CPI: Consumer price index

Central and South India saw the rain deficit worsening while East and Northeast saw IMD: Indian meteorological department

marginal improvement. At the sub-division level, nine additional divisions reported WPI: Wholesale Price Index

deficit rains while only one reported excess rains on a cumulative basis.