Experian (AO) | Buy | Key points from the trading update call: Q2 marks a growth trough

研报英文原文证据摘录

Experian (AO) | Buy | Key points from the trading update call: Q2 marks a growth trough

News comment

Release date: 16 July 2026

Tobias Lukesch, CIIA

Equity Research Analyst

+49 69 7569 6217

tlukesch@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyExperian

United Kingdom | Financial services Beta Profile: MCap: GBP24.7bn

Target Price: 4,700.00p Bloomberg: EXPN LN Reuters: EXPN.L

Current Price: 2,709.00p Free float 100%

Up/downside: 73.5% Avg. daily volume (GBPm) 9,961.7

YTD abs performance -19.4% Market data: 15 July 2026

52-week high/low (GBP) 4088.00/2375.00

Key points from the trading update call: Q2 marks a growth trough

Key points:

A confident conf. call. Management continues to see favourable trends, driving greater consumption of proprietary data, driving

growth within the expectations of the previous guidance (6-8% organic revenue growth). Group operating revenue growth of 7%

in Q1 was effectively 8% excluding the breach impact, consistent with last year’s underlying run-rate.

However, the next quarter is likely to see 6-7% organic revenue growth, with headwinds from the USD20m data breach contract

and a USD20m one-off insurance catch-up benefit in Q2 2026, adding to USD40m in Q2 2027E. Hence, we expect Q2 to be the

trough quarter for organic revenue growth in FY2027E.

The stock is still down 3% today, but we expect the recovery that began with the conference call to continue. New incremental

buyers of the stock might, however, consider the best timing to enter the stock. We believe today's level offers a good

opportunity, but the H1 results in November could have a temporary dampening effect.

Q&A reinforces Buy case

The Q&A was reassuring, supporting our Buy thesis that Experian can sustain high-single-digit underlying growth despite limited

help from the macro environment.