The Roth Report: Sizing the IPO Boom

研报英文原文证据摘录

The Roth Report: Sizing the IPO Boom

July 12, 2026

Market Cap of US IPO Companies as % of Total Market Cap

5.00%

4.00%

3.00%

2.00%

1.00%

0.00%

Source: Wolfe Research, Jay R. Ritter (University of Florida), IPO Statistics, as of July 10, 2026.

The distinction between company value and actual equity supply is important, though. While the companies going public

may be historically large relative to the market, only a fraction of their shares will initially be available for trading. The

ultimate supply impact will unfold over time through the IPOs themselves and subsequent lock-up expirations.

Will there be enough demand to absorb all of this new stock? One way to think about this question is to consider

the key supply and demand dynamics of equities. On the demand side, the biggest source of buying from companies

themselves is share repurchases. On the supply side are IPOs, which add shares to the market, while lock-up expirations

can create a second wave of potential supply as early investors and employees become free to sell. The comparison isn't

perfect: lock-up expirations represent potential rather than actual selling, and buybacks are only one source of equity

demand. But the basic framework is straightforward: the larger buybacks are relative to IPO issuance and expiring lock-

ups, the easier it should be for the market to absorb the new supply.

Based on our estimates, this should be another strong year for buybacks, with around $1.3tr in repurchases, compared

with $220bn in potential IPO issuance and around $750bn in expiring lock-ups. Even under the conservative assumption

that all shares coming out of lock-up are sold, buybacks would still exceed this potential supply, suggesting the market

should have sufficient demand to absorb the new supply.