Genesis Minerals: GMD+VAU=fortress Leonora. Near term accretive, mid-term dilutive.

研报英文原文证据摘录

Genesis Minerals: GMD+VAU=fortress Leonora. Near term accretive, mid-term dilutive.

Consolidating Leonora

See our earlier note here: Genesis Minerals: A$5.6bn bid for VAU: now or never? 06 July

2026.

How we model GMD-VAU

We set out our pro forma estimates in Exhibit 2. We remove our mill expansion from

Laverton for $320m in capex savings from ‘synergies’. We assume a 50/50 split of the

EV paid less net assets acquired to D&A (increase A$133mpa) and goodwill.

This is not as clean cut as other mergers, such as the Northern Star Resources and

Saracen Minerals merger, as we essentially reduce our standalone GMD production i.e.

Tower Hill would no longer go to an expanded Leonora and instead goes to King of the

Hills. Thus the proposed merger impact is not GMD+VAU=proforma. In Exhibit 2, our

Mergeco impact assumes that GMD would not go ahead with the Leonora/Tower Hill

expansion, and instead only utilises the expanded 7.5-8.0Mtpa KOTH mill. This would

reduce the expected mill capacity of the merged entity by 2.6Mtpa, and our expected

mergoCo gold production by ~60koz/140koz/175koz in FY28/29/30e respectively vs the

GMD + VAU scenario.

GMD Leonora/Laverton

• We remove 2.6Mtpa of mill capacity at Leonora for 1.4Mtpa but displace lower

grade tonnes at King of the Hill open cut. We (still) assume an expansion to

5Mtpa at Laverton during FY31 with Magnetics' Lady Julie providing ~1.9Mtpa

of feed.

Exhibit 1: Proforma MergeCo NPV breakdown

Operational NAV

Source: BofA Global Research estimates

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

King of the hills:

• We model 8Mtpa of mill feed with Darlot providing 0.8Mtpa @ 2.4g/t Au into

FY31, KoTH underground providing 0.85Mtpa at 1.6g/t Au in line with FY26

mined grades, Tower Hill providing 2Mtpa at 2g/t Au with development tonnes

from late FY27.