Q2 Base Metals Preview - Record Copper Prices Offsetting Cost Pressures

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Q2 Base Metals Preview - Record Copper Prices Offsetting Cost Pressures

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA INDUSTRY UPDATE

July 14, 2026

■Metals & Minerals Q2 Base Metals Preview - Record Copper

Prices Offsetting Cost Pressures

Craig Hutchison, P. Eng^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 982 3474

Q2/26 marks the third consecutive quarter of record quarterly copper prices, which should

craig.hutchison@tdsecurities.com

support solid margins and FCF, despite cost pressures from lower gold prices q/q and higher

Ernad Sijercic, CFA^ diesel and sulphuric acid costs. We have increased our near-term copper prices to reflect

416 307 8932 supply tightness while raising our LT uranium price forecasts to $95/lb, reflecting positive

ernad.sijercic@tdsecurities.com

signals in the term market.

Price Target Changes

We maintain our constructive view on copper and copper equities. Near-term macroALS-T C$60.00 (Prior C$55.00)

CCO-T C$190.00 (Prior C$185.00) concerns have overshadowed what remains a fundamentally attractive setup characterized

CIA-T C$5.00 (Prior C$6.50) by elevated prices, tight concentrate markets, growing electrification demand, and an

ERO-T C$44.00 (Prior C$47.00) insufficient pipeline of new projects. While volatility is likely to persist as investors weigh tariff

LUN-T C$43.00 (Prior C$44.00) outcomes and global growth expectations, we believe the market continues to underestimate

TECK.B-T C$89.00 (Prior C$82.00)

the difficulty of delivering sufficient new supply over the coming decade.

We expect mine-site costs to reflect the impact of the Iran conflict during Q2. Elevated

energy prices, higher shipping costs, and disruption across critical supply chains likely

pressured operating costs as the quarter progressed. Sulphuric acid markets were particularly