Updating 2Q26 Estimates for Florida SDP, Core Growth vs. Prior Model Unchanged

研报英文原文证据摘录

Updating 2Q26 Estimates for Florida SDP, Core Growth vs. Prior Model Unchanged

TD Cowen Acadia Healthcare

Global Research July 14, 2026

AT A GLANCE

Our Investment Thesis Forthcoming Catalysts

Behavioral health demand continues to outpace supply. ACHC is in a unique position to capture ■ Organic same-store growth metrics

these tailwinds. We believe the long-term outlook for ACHC is attractive despite near-term ■ New potential de novo joint ventures and

challenges the business is facing. Management’s decision to reduce growth capex and improve facility expansions

FCF should result in a better appreciation of the underlying profitability of the business. We ■ M&A

think the market is undervaluing ACHC’s owned assets (>90% of IP facilities).

Base Case Assumptions Upside Scenario Downside Scenario

■ +LSD% revenue growth in 2026, flat adj ■ Above +LSD% revenue growth in 2026, adj ■ Revenue declines in 2026, adj EBITDA

EBITDA yty in 2026 EBITDA growth in 2026 materially declines in 2026

■ Low-single-digit growth contribution from ■ >Low-single-digit growth contribution ■ De novo bed openings decelerate towards

de novo bed openings from de novo bed openings immaterial contribution

■ No unannounced acquisitions modeled ■ Larger, accretive acquisitions are ■ Dilutive acquisitions are announced

announced

Price Performance Company Description

Acadia Healthcare operates a network of >255 behavioral healthcare facilities with >12k

$35

beds in 38 states and Puerto Rico. Acadia provides behavioral healthcare and substance

abuse services in a variety of settings, including inpatient psychiatric hospitals (IPF), specialty

30 treatment facilities, residential treatment centers (RTC) and outpatient comprehensive

treatment centers (CTCs).

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