Downgrade To Hold: Q2 Miss Spotlights Cracks In The Foundation

研报英文原文证据摘录

Downgrade To Hold: Q2 Miss Spotlights Cracks In The Foundation

TD Cowen Evotec SE

Global Research July 14, 2026

AT A GLANCE

Our Investment Thesis Forthcoming Catalysts

Evotec's multimodal technology platform provides diversified exposure to high growth ■ Horizon restructuring completion by YE:27

discovery and development therapeutic categories. Given the breadth of offerings, customer ■ Adj. EBITDA margin ~20% by FY28, €1B rev

bases, and supported therapies, the platform does not rely on any one specific drug candidate/ breakthrough & >20% Adj. EBITDA margin

modality to capture share and drive growth. Evotec's success is instead driven by industry- in 2030

level factors with macroeconomic headwinds influencing customer spend and in turn, topline ■ Biosimilar progression with Sandoz

revenues. Evotec's high-value, quality partnerships with big pharma, including BMY and Sanofi, ■ Data readouts from BMS partnership

offer important optionality during more turbulent macro environments and remain a key point (molecular glue degraders &

of differentiation vs peers. Evotec is at a point where the company needs to execute on the Neuroscience)

financial priorities it has laid out to date. That said, we appreciate the continued strength of

Evotec's JEB segment and long-term prospects of their partnered R&D sharing business model

(which could provide significant upside if market pressures continue to subside).

Base Case Assumptions Upside Scenario Downside Scenario

■ FY26 Group revs between €700-780M ■ FY26 toplines >€780M ■ FY26 revs <€700M

■ FY26 Adj. EBITDA between €0-40M ■ Adj. EBITDA ahead of guidance in FY26 ■ Adj. EBITDA misses guidance in FY26

■ Continued softness in D&PD revenues w/ ■ Recovery in D&PD revenues in 2026 ■ Worse-than-expected pharma spend