O-I Glass Inc: Better relative catalysts and upside in sector prompt shift to Underperform

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O-I Glass Inc: Better relative catalysts and upside in sector prompt shift to Underperform

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O-I Glass Inc

Better relative catalysts and upside in

sector prompt shift to Underperform

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 11.00 USD | Price: 9.60 USD

Move to U/P from prior Buy 14 July 2026

O-I Glass goes to Underperform given our view of relative catalysts. We don’t see lots of Equity

downside and management deserves credit for its performance-improvement initiatives

and attempts to upgrade leadership, but relative upside could lag given continued glass

Key Changesvolume weakness. Our PO is $11 (was $13) as we trim forecasts and adjust multiples.

(US$) Previous Current

Inv. Opinion C-1-9 C-3-9We get more selective with our Buys across group

With the stock having bounced back ~20% to near $10, we move to Underperform, Inv. Rating BUY UNDERPERFORM

recognizing that OI was at higher levels just two quarters ago. Glass demand remains Price Obj. 13.00 11.00

challenged and much of the Fit-to-Win (FTW) benefit is underway – only $175mn of a 2026E Rev (m) 6,314.7 6,232.5

$750mn program will remain in 2027. With less restructuring runway remaining, 2027E Rev (m) 6,322.1 6,201.1

earnings acceleration might be difficult. More importantly, we believe the path toward 2028E Rev (m) 6,317.3 6,199.4

management's approximately $1.45bn EBITDA objective for 2027 is becoming less 2026E EPS 1.10 1.00

certain. 2027E EPS 1.40 1.35

2028E EPS 1.60 1.50

Europe remains sluggish; SVP ops leaving the company 2026E EBITDA (m) 1,125.2 1,102.8

OI recently stated that the pace of improvement in Europe remained below expectations. 2027E EBITDA (m) 1,166.5 1,155.1

Meantime, FX could become a larger headwind should the US dollar remain near current 2028E EBITDA (m) 1,189.3 1,168.7